Risk/ Benefit Assessment

Development and evaluation of improved benefit/ risk assessment methods for evaluating invasive species infestations and their control using biologically-based technologies and other integrated control methods.

Overview: We propose to implement a 4-objective program to address Task 1. A similar approach was used by USDA to assess needs and reconfigure Departmental oversight of the entire multi-agency biological control program (see Carruthers and Petroff 1997). Although the structural redesign has not yet been fully completed by USDA, the approach successfully outlined important needs and set significant restructuring in motion. In this proposal Drs. Carruthers and DAntonio will organize and lead the process though the following steps: 1) a panel of experts will first scope out the problem of biological control risk/ benefits assessment through a series of small group meetings of core personnel (see Key Personnel for a list of the core group); 2) the core group will develop a detailed whitepaper describing the issues and possible sets of alternative solutions to those issues; 3) a larger group of adequately balanced participants will then be sent the whitepaper for review and invited to attend a comprehensive workshop where the issues will be discussed and recommendations compiled into a formal report; and 4) the risk/benefit analysis core team will then test the process using examples from our primary target weeds and other interesting programs, using retrospective analysis.

Objective 1a: To scope out a more systematic, comprehensive and quantitatively-based set of methods to address regulatory and environmental concerns regarding the benefits, risks and approval process for new exotic natural enemies for biological control of exotic invasive weeds.

Justification: Currently, extensive host-specificity testing is conducted on all weed biological control agents prior to being permitted for release. However, even when these agents show little or no affect on non-target plants, concern has been expressed by a number of different groups in regard to current and potential threats to agricultural crops, native species and other organisms that may be at risk. Very little effort has gone into developing effective quantitative and/or systematic qualitative methods of economic analysis or risk/benefit assessment in the area of biological control regulations. It is our hypothesis that: A systematic and clearly defined delineation of the problem area with a diverse set of participants would help clarify the next steps in developing and applying more rigorous assessment techniques in the regulatory evaluation of biological control permitting.

Methods: A group of scientific and regulatory personnel will be formed into a discovery team that be will meet on two different occasions and conduct a scoping process to first produce a full set of possible issues and concerns that should be considered and addressed by the full Task 1 process. This will begin at the first meeting where primary areas of concern are identified and formalized. This will be followed by an extended period of investigation where individual core team members will do more in-depth study in an assigned area. This may include conducting literature surveys, discussions with associated groups, methodology assessments, etc. The core group will then reconvene and finalize the scope through discussion and consensus processes. A trained facilitator will provide guidance and closure to this problem formulation activity.

Outputs/ products: The group will produce a well-developed and highly focused outline of the issues, needs, and potential solutions for a holistic, reasonable and effective risk/ benefit assessment process for weed biological control.

Objective 1b: Development of a comprehensive whitepaper describing the issues and possible sets of alternative solutions to those issues facing biological control risk/benefit assessment.
Justification: The development of a whitepaper will allow the formalization of the current state, needs and potential solutions to be gathered, documented and made available for detailed evaluation by a wider range of experts. It is our hypothesis that the formalization of this information will allow a wider range of individuals to gather and comprehend the full set of issues, processes and potential solutions to developing an improved risk/ benefit assessment methodology for biological control.

Methods: As the scoping document is completed, the core group will volunteer and/or be assigned segments of the scoping outline to expand upon in written form. The core group will then be given realistic deadlines to provide individual segments of their textual materials to a group responsible for final compilation of the whitepaper. This group will pull the entire document together along with other necessary supporting materials and distribute a draft product to the entire core group for review and editing. Once all issues in the production of the whitepaper have been resolved, a final document will be produced and made ready for distribution.

Outputs/ products: The group will produce a highly focused and informative whitepaper documenting the primary issues and potential solutions to risk/ benefit assessment methodologies for biological control regulatory decision making.

Objective 1c: A workshop of invited specialists will be conducted with the goal of developing recommendations for improved biological control risk/ benefit assessment and regulation.

Justification: Due to the complexity of the problem and the differences of opinion that have arisen over the introduction and use of exotic natural enemies to control exotic and invasive pests, action is needed to help resolve current conflicts. To accomplish this, a diverse and well informed set of programmatic experts will be called together to discuss the critical issues and potential solutions to better regulating the risks and benefits associated with the use of classical biological control. It is our hypothesis that through participatory activities of a facilitated group process, not only will difficulties be identified but also reasonable solutions will be found. We also hypothesize that through a consensus process we will find more effective and acceptable ways for groups with differing perspectives to work together in resolving complex problems such as biologically-based control of invasive species.

Methods: A summary whitepaper will be distributed to a set of approximately 100 invited specialists who will be chosen to participate by the core group. The participants will be asked to review the whitepaper and other related subject matter materials and then to participate in a comprehensive workshop. The workshop will be broken into critical subject matter areas identified in the scoping process, where one or more subject matter specialists will first be asked to provide an overview presentation summarizing the area and then a section moderator will lead the entire group through a discussion of the material. Following the overview discussion, the participants will be divided out into breakout groups where they will be asked to address a specific set of issues related to the area under consideration. The groups will then reconvene in plenary session to review the outcomes and then combine their comments into final recommendations. This process will be repeated for each of the critical subject areas and then a final plenary session will be conducted to review the entire set of group recommendations. At the end of the workshop, critical Agency decision-makers responsible for the development, regulation and implementation of biological control and invasive species programs will then be invited to a summary briefing.

Output/products: A final project report will be provided to key invasive species and biological control program managers and a written workshop report developed and published as an output product of this process. The results of this effort will provide a set of overview issues, guidance on assessing the risks and benefits of using biological control, and improved guidelines for program administrators, scientists and regulators. We refer you to Carruthers and Petroff (1997) for an example process and summary report of a workshop that lead to the formation of the USDA Biological Control Coordinating Council.

Objective 1d: Conduct example benefit/risk assessments using new methodology not typically applied in the area of invasive species assessment and biological control consideration. Provide this information as a support base for the whitepaper/workshop activities of objectives 1a-c, and provide supporting analyses to the invasive species control research and implementation plans under investigation in Tasks 2 and 3. Specifically, to conduct enhanced risk/ benefit analysis for YST, saltcedar, giant reed biological control programs and retrospective analysis of other programs.
Justification: The impact of invasive plant species and/or their biological control generates both public and private benefits and concerns. A variety of approaches to manage well established exotic species are available and include biological control technologies. The benefits, costs and potential risks of each approach depends in large part on their effectiveness, potential side effects and of the priorities and abilities of the impacted parties to leverage efforts and expenditures to use these technologies (i.e. control costs and practicality). This has to be compared to the economic and environmental costs of taking no action (that is letting the invasive species continue to spread and cause negative impacts). Therefore, an increased understanding of the impacts of an invasive species and the economic and environmental costs of action or no-action will allow for better decision making by stakeholders, and ultimately to increased effectiveness of agencies and involved individuals. Risk assessment allows the evaluation of making these decisions with less than perfect information. That is, when probabilities of unknown outcomes need to be assessed and considered in the analysis. Some economic and risk concerns of individuals and groups involved with invasive species control include the impact of invasive species on the productivity of agricultural land, long-term maintenance of desirable species (both agricultural and native species), and reasonable pest control costs. The risks of biological control are typically characterized as reductions in non-target populations that also have intrinsic value that must be considered. It is our hypothesis that these cost, benefit and risk factors can be compared to ratios for other available methods and to no-action alternatives. These comparisons can then be used in a systematic way to improve programmatic and regulatory decision making. The specific set of biological control efforts under investigation in this proposal provides some interesting and challenging case studies.

Methods: Under the guidance of the Task 1 co-coordinators (Drs. Carruthers and DAntonio) and both Drs. Ahl and Klonsky, the risk/benefit analysis core team will acquire and evaluate representative benefit/risk information associated with a number of specific invasive species/ biological control action programs. Analyses will be conducted both on existing data from already implemented programs and on programs that are currently under investigation in other Tasks of this project. This will allow retrospective analysis of a number of projects that have already been partially characterized but that may be lacking critical data in some areas, and current analysis of programs where additional data may be developed by highly qualified teams of scientific ecologist, economists, entomologists, risk assessors, etc. The benefit/ risk assessment process will be supported by two post-doctoral associates who will compile and evaluate test materials on biological, economic and environmental aspects of the programs.

Output/ products: A combination of economic and risk assessment data will be compiled on the three primary target pest plants (YST, saltcedar and giant reed) and the associated biological control programs that are being investigated in other Tasks of this proposal. These assessments will be made available both as example systems for evaluation and consideration for new risk/ benefit assessment technologies for the field of biological control and as decision making models for the specific programs under investigation in this study. These results will provide both specific benefits to the associated programs and general improvements to the area of invasive species and biological control regulatory evaluation.